Putin's influence shapes US policy in Venezuela

The Unraveling of International Norms

The year 2026 began with a shocking turn of events that sent ripples across the globe. Hardly anyone anticipated it to be a year of peace, and by the second day, the worst fears were realized. Overnight strikes on Venezuela, the abduction of its leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and Donald Trump’s declaration that the US would "run" the country and sell its oil have marked another significant blow to international law and global norms. However, this is not the most alarming aspect of the situation.

A Series of Aggressive Actions

Trump's actions have been characterized by a series of aggressive moves that have tested the limits of international law. These include airstrikes on small boats in the seas off Central America and the killing of their crews based on unproven allegations of drug trafficking. Additionally, there was an armed seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers on the high seas. The number of casualties during the capture of Maduro in the early hours of Saturday remains unknown.

The Erosion of Global Stability

In terms of global stability, the most concerning aspect of the Maduro rendition is that it worked. Trump's belief in his own global omnipotence and his desire to seize territory and natural resources of other countries have been held in check until now by his fear of entanglement in foreign wars. However, this seems to be changing. Trump has expressed a clear thrill for the drama of the Maduro operation and the efficiency of the American soldiers involved. He declared on Saturday that he was "not afraid" of deploying ground forces in Venezuela to pursue his interests.

A Shift in Priorities

For an aging president facing diminishing popularity and desperate to distract attention from the Epstein child-trafficking scandal, a tightening embrace of military power is an ominous development. On Saturday morning, Trump seemed giddy with military success, praising the planning and troops involved in the operation. The attack on Venezuela suggests that the allure of foreign lands, oil, and minerals is now more enticing than the Nobel prize.

Legal Justifications and Motivations

The attack on Venezuela was cast in legal language by members of the Trump administration, suggesting that Maduro was being "brought to justice." However, the specific drug allegations made against him by the US are seen by most experts as flimsy and would not represent convincing grounds under international or US law for the attack on Venezuela and Maduro’s abduction. Trump's primary motivation appears to be the covetousness of Venezuela’s oil rather than a desire to bring Maduro before a court or deliver democracy to the people of Venezuela.

Implications for International Law

The international laws and norms Trump has barged through had already been loosened by previous US administrations. The operation most closely resembles the 1990 invasion of Panama and forced surrender of its strongman by the first Bush administration. This was followed by the younger George Bush with the invasion of Iraq on false grounds, and his administration’s broad use of rendition of torture. Barack Obama failed to hold his predecessor’s administration to account and pursued his own legally questionable drone assassination campaign against suspected terrorists.

A New Era of Foreign Policy

Trump has complete disdain for the rules-based system that previously favored America. He looks at the world through the eyes of a 19th-century imperialist, but with 21st-century weapons. It is unclear how far Trump intends to go in Venezuela to advance his aims, but he made clear on Saturday that the “American armada” would remain poised in the region “until United States demands have been fully met and fully satisfied.”

Regional and Global Concerns

The events in Venezuela will cause immediate anxiety to governments like Iran and Denmark, against which Trump has expressed enthusiasm for taking radical action. In recent days, Trump has said the US would come to the defence of Iranian anti-government protesters, and his officials have kept up a drumbeat of threats to take control of Greenland by any necessary means. Last month, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service labelled the US as a security risk, a declaration that would have been unthinkable just a short time ago for a NATO ally.

Expanding the Scope

In his press conference on Saturday, Trump added Cuba to the list of countries in his sights, suggesting it was “very similar” to Venezuela “in the sense that we want to help the people in Cuba.” His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, added that Havana should feel “concerned” in the wake of the events in Venezuela.

The Future of Global Order

The events of the first few days of 2026 mark a dangerous shift from a mostly rules-based world to one of competing spheres of influence, determined by armed might and the readiness to use it. One US commentator, David Rothkopf, called it the “Putinization of US foreign policy.” Russian commentators have frequently suggested that Latin America lies in America’s domain just as Ukraine was under the Russian shadow. Vladimir Putin thinks the same of much of eastern Europe. Xi Jinping will draw his own conclusions.

A Perilous Path

The peril made brutally clear in the first few days of 2026 is one that will ultimately be faced by everyone. The erosion of international norms and the increasing reliance on military power signal a troubling future for global stability and cooperation.